Escalating Rhetorical Battle Among Ethiopia and Eritrea Raises Anxieties of Conflict

Growing concerns are present about the chance of military engagement among East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his nation's access to the sea was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the two countries have often been tense. Following a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Five years later, a military clash started in which more than 100,000 people died.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

Despite continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that moves to justify "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Border

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown graduation ceremonies of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The leader of personnel division of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Origins of the Conflict

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before evolving into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The two signed a declaration that the hostilities was over – a decision that won Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's previous civil war in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have since broken down again.