A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
